China — 832, Poverty — 0
Xi Pitches a Shut Out
Xi made eradication of rural poverty a primary goal when he came to power eight years ago. The target was clarified when 832 counties with per capita incomes below the most extreme poverty line were identified in 2015.
One by one, by moving workers, business link-ups, cash subsidies and more, counties made it over the goal line — until last week the last nine, all in Guizhou Province, were removed from the list.
The inquisitive mind wants to know, is this total bullshit or is it something meaningful we should celebrate no matter what we think about the Chinese Communist Party? Ninety-three million people who presumably needed help now living at a higher material standard.
Is the goal line part of the bullshit? How realistic is the standard for claiming victory? What little coverage this accomplishment has received has emphasized China’s self-serving definition of poverty.
I’m no expert but the complaint seems overstated to me. China’s measure is 4,000 yuan, about $600 per capita annually. To be out of poverty, less than 2% of the residents in a county can have an income below 4,000 yuan. The comparable World Bank standard is, $1.90/day, or about $700 annually.
You be the judge. If I am interpreting either standard incorrectly, I welcome feedback.
Another line of attack is fake data. Xi wants 4,000 yuan, Xi gets 4,000 yuan. Of course that’s happening. But it does not preclude substantive development also happening.
Fudging numbers in Xi’s China is tricky business. If you don’t make your numbers, you’re out; but if you fudge too much or too blatantly, you’re also out.
Preposterously, trying to actually get the job done well might be the best plan in many cases. Or get as close to it as possible so the fudges are just little ones.
Still, the accomplishment looks different when we acknowledge that even though the bottom is moving up, the gap between top and bottom is growing even faster. While absolute poverty may be decreasing, relative poverty is simultaneously increasing.
My guess is relative poverty is pretty abstract if you’re getting better food and maybe a better place to live. I think a better question involves the sustainability of however those 832 counties did whatever they did. Was it a one-time thing? Is there a mechanism for getting back on the list?
Next year is the 100th anniversary of the founding the Chinese Communist Party at the First Congress, July, 1921 in Shanghai. It is not likely that the list of 832 will be reviewed and updated between now and some point in the future when all of the birthday celebrations are over and all of the clean-up is done.
So for now, it’s 832 to 0 and that’s the way it will stand. There’s not just 832 amazing stories to be told, there’s really more like 93 million good stories. That’s like the population of the UK and Australia all getting an upgrade.
That is, if you assume having more Yuan is an upgrade. That’s why I’d like to hear some stories. Fortunately, we can.
People have been studying rural poverty elimination programs in China for a long time. Some people have lived in rural villages for years to look at the effects of Beijing’s mandates where it matters most.
Some of them speak on podcasts and the sources I rely on suggest that the progress is not without flaws but that it is real.
That is, if you assume having more Yuan is an upgrade. That’s why I’d like to hear some stories. Fortunately, we can.
People have been studying rural poverty elimination programs in China for a long time. Some people have lived in rural villages for years to look at the effects of Beijing’s mandates where it matters most.
Some of them speak on podcasts and the sources I rely on suggest that the progress is not without flaws but that it is real.
